AI Overviews now appear in 48% of SERPs — organic CTR collapses by 61%

Redaktion · · 5 Min. Lesezeit

The numbers circulating publicly since March 2026 are blunt: AI Overviews now appear on 48% of all tracked Google search queries. Organic click-through rate beneath an AI Overview has fallen from 1.76% to 0.61% — a 61% drop. And Chartbeat data shows small publishers losing up to 60% of their search traffic over two years. For any agency strategy that still relies on “ranking number one in classic results,” this is a turning point.

What used to be

Until early 2025, SEO essentially worked like this: position one took roughly 30% of clicks; position two around 15%. The distribution was stable enough that agencies could produce semi-reliable traffic forecasts from search volume × CTR curve. AI Overviews were a US beta feature, not the dominant mode.

In that world the goal was simple: secure top-3 rankings, win featured snippets, keep technical SEO clean. More visibility = more clicks = more traffic.

What applies now

1. Visibility no longer equals clicks. The Seer study is the central data point: on queries with an AI Overview, organic CTR has dropped 61%. A top-3 ranking that brought 12% CTR a year ago now delivers roughly 4.7% on an AI-Overview query. At the same search volume that’s a two-thirds traffic loss — without anything changing about the ranking itself.

2. The 48% is an average. The real picture is asymmetric. Informational queries (“What is X?”, “How does Y work?”) trigger AI Overviews most often and show the largest CTR drops. Transactional queries (“buy X”, “price of Y”) are far less affected — Google is protecting its ads inventory. Anyone optimizing 80% for top-of-funnel content is disproportionately exposed.

3. The damage is asymmetrically distributed. The Chartbeat data spells it out: small sites lose the most (−60%), large sites the least (−22%). Reason: Google prefers established, high-E-E-A-T sources for AI Overview citations. Agency clients in niches or without a strong brand signal get hit harder than publishers with established authority.

Context

Worth reading the numbers carefully. The 48% comes from BrightEdge tracking and varies strongly by industry and language — in Germany, AI Overview coverage seems closer to 35–40%, with a clear growth trend. The Seer CTR figure is based on a single sample; other studies (Pew, Ahrefs) show drops between 30% and 60%.

The direction is undisputed regardless. What was dismissed as the “SGE experiment” two years ago is now the default mode for almost every other search. And it won’t roll back — Google called AI Overviews a “growth product” on the Q1 2026 earnings call.

What many marketers underestimate: the CTR collapse hits SEA too. When users scroll less on the classic SERP because of AI Overviews, they also see fewer ads — Google catches that with AI Mode ads (see our news on that), but the distribution is shifting.

What you can do now

If you produce content for informational queries: prepare for “SEO traffic” on pure definition and how-to content to drop drastically over the medium term. Keep writing — but as an investment in citation visibility in AI Overviews and AI Mode, not primarily in clicks. Clear, structured answers, concise definitions, clean schema markup all increase the probability that Google quotes your text as a source.

If you run conversion-focused sites: shift effort harder toward bottom-of-funnel and transactional keywords — AI Overviews are rarer there and CTRs more stable. Brand searches remain largely unaffected.

If you serve agency clients: report impressions + AI Overview coverage alongside clicks from now on. The GSC coverage metric doesn’t directly capture AI Overview visibility, but the comparison “impressions growing, clicks falling” is today’s first indicator of AI-Overview pressure. Clients who don’t get this communicated early get unpleasant quarterly conversations later.

If you’re building agency positioning: GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is no longer future tense. Anyone offering robust citation strategies now has a 12-month lead over competitors still selling pure keyword SEO.

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